Tractament de la incertesa en estimació i previsió de pluja amb radars meteorològics
- Autores: Jordi Roca Sancho
- Directores de la Tesis: Marc Berenguer (dir. tes.), Daniel Sempere Torres (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) ( España ) en 2013
- Idioma: catalán
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Rafael Sanchez Diezma Guijarro (presid.), Francisco Rocadenbosch Burillo (secret.), Guy Delrieu (voc.)
- Materias:
- Enlaces
- Tesis en acceso abierto en: TDX
- Resumen
This thesis deals with uncertainty in radar-based precipitation estimation and nowcasting in two ways: its quantification in a probabilistic manner, and its reduction in the precipitation estimates. A straightforward way to obtain a quantification of the uncertainty is approximating the error in rainfall estimates or nowcasts by comparison against a reference and analyzing the error. In this thesis methods for the error statistical characterization in both rainfall estimation and nowcasting are proposed. In particular, the error characterization is thought for the uncertainty representation by means of the generation of multiple realizations of the estimates or nowcasts, being each realization a possible rainfall field. These sets of realizations (ensembles) are easy to interpret and use as an input in other non-linear systems (for instance, rainfall-runoff hydrological models) for the analysis of the uncertainty propagation. Through the years, the efforts to reduce the uncertainty in rainfall estimates have been devoted, in general, to the correction of radar observations for individual radars. The potential of radar networks in regions covered with several radars has not been fully exploited yet. In this thesis, we present a method to improve the estimation of 3D reflectivity fields using observations from several radars. An evaluation methodology has been also developed to compare different 3D radar mosaicking techniques.
