Resumen de Impact of fragmented emission reduction regimes on the energy market and on CO2 emissions related to land use: : A case study with China and the European Union as first movers
Sander A.C. Otto, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Morna Isaac, Paul L. Lucas, Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld
In recent years, an approach based on voluntary pledges by individual regions has attracted interest of policy-makers and consequently also climate policy research. In this paper, we analyze scenarios in which the EU and China act as early-movers in international climate policy. Such a situation risks leakage between regions with ambitious emission reduction targets and those with less ambitious targets via fossil-fuel markets, displacement of heavy industry and land-use consequences. We examine some of these factors using the IMAGE model. While IMAGE does not include all mechanisms, we find the leakage rate to be relatively small, about 5% of the emission reductions in the EU and China. The far majority occurs via the energy market channel and the remainder through land-use change. Reduced oil prices due to less depletion forms the key reason for this leakage impact.
