Resumen de Desarrollo y validación de modelos probabilísticos de susceptibilidad y peligrosidad por dolinas en el karst evaporítico del valle del Ebro
Jorge Pedro Galve Arnedo, Francisco Gutiérrez Santolalla, Jaime Bonachea Pico, Juan Remondo Tejerina, J. Guerrero, Pedro Lucha López, Antonio Cendrero Uceda
A method for quantitatively assessing sinkhole susceptibility (spatial probability) and hazard (temporal-spatial probability) has been developed and independently tested in the Ebro valley alluvial evaporite karst. Three genetic types of sinkholes have been identified. A spatial database composed of a sinkhole inventory and 29 thematic layers related to potential conditioning factors has been implemented in a GIS. The sinkhole inventory includes two temporal populations (2005, 2006). Multiple susceptibility models were generated analysing the statistical relationships between the sinkholes and combinations of factors using Favourability Functions (empirical likelihood ratio models). Validation of the models through several strategies has allowed us to assess their predictive capability and to determine the variables that best explain the spatial distribution of each type of sinkhole. The best susceptibility model produced with the 2005 sinkhole population has been transformed into a hazard map with the 2006 sinkhole sample considering the average size of the sinkholes. This hazard model provides a minimum probability for a pixel to be affected by a sinkhole in a given period
