Resumen de Projecting policy effects with statistical models
This paper attempts to provide a picture of the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecasting and policy analysis. It does so by summarizing some recent developments in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. I believe these developments are in the process of changing the ways economists think about methodology, but this paper does not pay much attention to my views in that area. 1 Instead I try to provide a concrete idea of what is going on in current research, with some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed.
